2014年10月29日 星期三

英國佔領運動被打壓

部分英國人最近受香港啟發,發現本國選舉自有史以來,提名的政黨候選人從來都是指定人選,從來沒有公民提名的情況,又因為對本國資本主義政治越來越不滿,在10月17日至26日發起了Occupy Democracy的運動,希望英國能實現真正的民眾,讓政府關注普通百姓的聲音和利益,消除日益增大的貧富差距。截止上周周五,該占領行動已經被逮捕40人,西方主流媒體都不見報道,而需要看俄羅斯的Russia Today的報道:http://rt.com/uk/198820-occupy-democracy-parliament-square/

當然,也不能說西方媒體完全不提及此事,在衛報(The guardian)在活動之後三天(10月19日)的時候還是有提到這個事件的,只是報道方式比較特別。對於民眾的事實上是為本國表達民主訴求的情況下,衛報在第一版的新聞報道時將其修改成是為了聲援香港。在圖片中清晰地表明該活動是為了支持香港。
 
不過之後圖片下的文字說明 已經被替換成“Police officers and Occupy protesters in Parliament Square on Saturday night. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA”,
變得和支持香港的民主訴求無關了。
為了證實衛報確實有過這樣的陳述,大家可以使用Demonstrators voicing support for pro-demoncracy campaign in Hong Kong evicited after three days of occupation 為關鍵詞搜索,並將以下對搜索結果的截圖一並貼出。
 
衛報在10月19日時的報道:http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/19/occupy-protesters-parliament-square-london 
當然,衛報並沒有後續報道說40人被逮捕的事情。當然了,BBC就壓根沒有提過這個事情。
這就是英國的“新聞自由”以及“新聞媒體獨立於政治/政府”的現狀。

另外,就在8月份 Ferguson發生黑人大規模游行示威,後來多人被逮捕,包括記者也被逮捕的事件,甚至埃及都來批評USA,要求保持克制,尊重民眾的集會自由與言論自由,針對埃及的批評,USA國務院發言人提出這純屬USA內政,暗示他國無權干涉,其相關視頻(來自CCTV 13 頻道)可見:http://www.guancha.cn/america/2014_08_20_258687.shtml

2014年10月28日 星期二

香港小資革命逃兵紛現

小資產階級革命失敗在太多計算

明報專訊】佔領行動今日「滿月」,處身持續的抗爭,終要面對現實環境,「佔領中環」發起人陳健民和戴耀廷決定稍後返回校園復教,佔中團隊也逐漸把事務性質 工作如糾察隊、醫療隊和物資隊等,交棒給學生。陳健民說,佔中團隊多是有工作在身的成年人,需慢慢回復正常生活,「學生既然是一個領導的地位……可能要承 擔更多場地上的事務性工作,我們自己的能量都不是可以持續這麼久」。
http://life.mingpao.com/cfm/dailynews3.cfm?File=20141028%2Fnalgb%2Fgba1h.txt

佔鐘革命隊伍再現大袋級逃兵。收肥佬錢最多的朱耀明最縮骨,一開波就扮透明。時窮節乃見,一提五區公投泛民人人扮耳聾。最好笑肥佬黎自己報紙就日日撐佔領,日叫人毋忘初衷,但自己就使橫手找陳日君之流勸退學生,打擊革命隊伍士氣。點解?!

現在小資產階級陳戴兩人更拋棄革命群眾為了權位背叛人民。當然佔中運動的初衷只是佔中十日再由警方搭走為泛民爭取光環打擊梁政府管治。

現在打擊梁政府管治的任務已經超額完成。戰果更擴大至打擊了香港的法治精神,這就動搖了資產階級賴以生存的根本。而更重要的是泛民領導民主運動的光環不獨沒有得到,反為被基層選民埋怨搞出無政府狀態,更大件事的是被激進政客騎劫,變成為激進政黨造嫁衣。最明顯的就是佔領金鐘革命委員會由佔中三人組變成加入雙學再加入梁家傑變成成四方集團到近日加入了激進組織所謂的五方平台。這次又重複了佔中商討日方案投票被激進派突擊騎劫的故事。

回顧東歐由小資知識分子發動的所謂顏色革命無有一個是成功將政權交到人民手上,全部都是上層政治人物將人民血汗再分配。格魯吉亞如是,烏克蘭如是。
但由無產階級發動的突尼斯革命昨日已經在結出第一束果實—突尼斯革命第一次真正民主選舉已經圓滿結束並選出新一屆政府。

無產階級革命萬歲

2014年10月21日 星期二

Accelerated Innovation: The New Challenge From China 

Rather than focusing on technological breakthroughs, Chinese companies are finding new ways to innovate that reduce lead times and speed up problem solving. Companies elsewhere should take notice.
 

Chinese companies are opening up a new front in global competition. It centers on what we call accelerated innovation — that is, reengineering research and development and innovation processes to make new product development dramatically faster and less costly. The new emphasis is unlikely to generate stunning technological breakthroughs, but it allows Chinese competitors to reduce the time it takes to bring innovative products and services to mainstream markets. It also represents a different way of deploying Chinese cost and volume advantages in global competition. Silicon Valley and other technology hotbeds may be able to match the speed of Chinese innovation in particular sectors such as electronics and Internet-based services. However, what’s distinctive about the strongest Chinese competitors is their capability to combine accelerated innovation with rapid scale-up to high volume at low cost, and to apply these techniques across a wide variety of traditional industries. We saw accelerated innovation being deployed in Chinese industries ranging from pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and information technology to medical and industrial equipment, consumer electronics and e-business. Although it may not impact companies that are consistently able to deliver breakthrough innovations, it presents real threats and opportunities to many mainstream competitors.

The Push to Accelerate Innovation

We spent three years researching the way Chinese companies are accelerating R&D and innovation thanks to the low cost and abundant supply of Chinese engineers. (See “About the Research.”) We found that Chinese companies are industrializing innovation to improve speed and cost by applying lessons from production lines, pushing the boundaries of simultaneous engineering to cut the lead times for new product development, rapidly incorporating user feedback into new designs to drive down the learning curve faster and restructuring their organizations to speed up problem solving. These developments have potentially huge implications for how companies should think about global competition and whether they need to rethink and reengineer their established innovation and product development processes.

Industrializing the Innovation Process

The classic image of innovation, especially early-stage R&D, is of an inventor or a small team brainstorming and experimenting with new ideas. Large-scale and tightly defined processes are generally seen as inhospitable to creativity and innovation. Although innovation may be systematized and scaled up to involve thousands of scientists and engineers in some industries, such as pharmaceuticals and IT, the core R&D activities nonetheless typically revolve around a set (perhaps a large set) of relatively small teams.
A number of Chinese companies are challenging this conventional view by pushing the boundaries of systemization and scale to a whole new level in their efforts to accelerate innovation, leverage the potential of a large pool of competent but often unexceptional technicians and engineers and reduce costs. Their approach is to divide the innovation process into a large number of small steps and then assign teams to work on each stage. The goal is for this “assembly line” to accelerate the process and deliver results quickly.
WuXi AppTec, a pharmaceutical, biopharmaceutical and medical-device outsourcing company with operations in both China and the United States, has embraced this industrialized approach to new product development. Its work on a new drug for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C provides a good example. As with most drugs, the development cycle involves discovery, preclinical and clinical trials, regulatory approval and marketing. Rather than relying on a small team working in the laboratory with a few machines, however, WuXi AppTec began by dividing the R&D process into a series of eight steps, with dozens of people assigned to each step. The initial creation of the reactive intermediates required specialized staff with at least master’s degrees and considerable research training. The other steps required “R&D workers,” who are graduates of trade colleges from which WuXi AppTec hires thousands of employees each year. Rather than relying on automation (with its associated high capital costs and risk of bottlenecks), WuXi AppTec uses manual techniques that can be quickly scaled up or down as required to keep the project moving rapidly. Efficiency is increased by using SAP’s enterprise resource-planning software adapted from a manufacturing assembly line to manage the innovation process. This highly industrialized approach has enabled WuXi AppTec to complete projects two to five times faster than comparable projects using conventional approaches that the company benchmarked in the United States.

Pushing the Boundaries of Simultaneous Engineering

Traditionally, new product and service development has been organized as a sequential “waterfall” process, where certain steps needed to be complete before subsequent stages could begin. In recent years, companies have tried to speed things up by tackling certain steps in parallel, an approach pioneered by NASA and now commonly referred to as “simultaneous” or “concurrent” engineering. Although the concept of simultaneous engineering is simple, many companies have found it hard to implement in practice because of barriers such as unwillingness by engineers to release information early and difficulties in coordinating multidisciplinary teams.1
Chinese companies, however, are not only embracing simultaneous engineering but pushing it to new levels. Consider Lenovo Group Ltd., which acquired IBM’s personal computer business in 2005 and is headquartered in Beijing and Morrisville, North Carolina. In 2005, its new product development cycle was 12 to 18 months. Since then, Lenovo has managed to cut the cycle in half by applying simultaneous engineering across the entire innovation process, beginning in R&D and continuing through design, manufacturing engineering, quality control, procurement, marketing and service. For every project, team members work on different elements in parallel, under the supervision of one leader. Lenovo overcomes the usual problems of implementation by breaking down its product designs into separable modules linked by standardized interfaces; redesigning its software to be compatible across all activities associated with the new product; establishing short lines of communication where each team member can represent his or her respective functional department; and introducing open design processes where information is shared with the entire team as early as possible.
Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co. Ltd., which is based in Guangzhou, China, and is the world’s largest piano maker, has applied a similar approach to its manufacture of musical instruments. Pianos are made up of four main components: the resonance system, the keyboard, the pedal system and the case. Western piano manufacturers have traditionally worked sequentially, with teams of two or three professionals spending up to two years going through all of the steps to completion. Pearl River uses a more industrial process. Recently, for example, for its high-end Kayserburg pianos, the company used a team of 23 workers (including six designers, 10 individuals with expertise in areas such as procurement, manufacturing and sales, three computer engineers and two product testers). This team was supported by an additional 40 craftspeople to enable rapid prototyping of possible new designs. Using this approach, Pearl River was able to launch a range of 10 new Kayserburg pianos in less than five months, at a total cost of just $1 million. Pearl River executives estimate that Western competitors using traditional design processes and small teams would have to invest around $10 million over several years to complete a similar set of new designs.
Innovation processes based on industrialization and simultaneous engineering are also being used in China to develop new Internet services. Consider Tencent, a leading Chinese Internet service portal that is based in Shenzhen and whose QQ instant messaging service has more than 800 million active user accounts. Tencent developed a new integrated calendar and reminder service by assembling a team that included individuals from every function and speciality required to host, launch and service the new product. This allowed Tencent to coordinate all of the critical elements: the user interface, the programming, the enhancement of the IT infrastructure and the development of maintenance and customer service protocols. The project was completed in just two and a half months, compared with a global norm of six months or more. Tencent’s goal was to be first to market, but it also wanted to develop a process for launching regular upgrades of the calendar and reminder application based on what it learned from market feedback.

Cycling Rapidly Through “Launch-Test-Improve”

When Tencent launched the first version of the QQ reminder application, it was geared toward appointments, birthdays and anniversaries. Users quickly pointed out that the product had a missing feature: reminders for when their favorite sporting events were about to begin. More surprising to Tencent’s developers, however, was the flood of input they got from gaming enthusiasts who wanted reminders about the schedules of computer-game tournaments. Within weeks, the Tencent team released a new version that incorporated both functions. This rapid cycle of launch-test-improve has now become core to Tencent’s innovation process. Rather than nailing down a full-fledged product before launch, the Tencent development team routinely launches ready-to-use new platforms with limited functionality and harnesses user feedback to improve the final product. To achieve this, the company has created channels to encourage user feedback, to rapidly communicate this to the R&D team and to ensure that the product architecture and design process is sufficiently flexible to incorporate new functionality quickly.
We saw similar rapid launch-test-improve cycles employed in almost every Chinese company we studied. Mindray Medical International Ltd., a company based in Shenzhen that is China’s largest maker of medical equipment, for example, released the initial version of its BeneHeart R3 electrocardiograph machine into the market following 18 months of product development. Soon thereafter, doctors asked for some additional functions, such as the capability to monitor oxygen levels in a patient’s hemoglobin and log electrical activity in the brain. Hospitals, for their part, wanted to use the machine for constant monitoring in intensive care wards rather than just for ad hoc testing. Working with their marketing and sales colleagues, Mindray’s R&D team started to design new models that incorporated these functions almost immediately. Using this kind of rapid market feedback, Mindray routinely launches new products every six months, in stark contrast to the typical two-year launch cycles of some of its foreign competitors.
Each product improvement may be relatively simple, but in combination the changes can transform the customer experience. Guangzhou Wide Industrial Co., Ltd., which manufactures energy-saving evaporative air conditioners, for example, found that units that expelled exhaust air from the side had a tendency to overheat when customers installed several of them side by side. In addition, customers complained that the fans were irritatingly noisy at night. Within six months, the company’s engineers redesigned the machines to expel exhaust air from the top and introduced an automatic control system that reduced fan speeds at night, when ambient temperatures are lower and less airflow is required. SIM Technology Group Ltd., a designer and manufacturer of cell phones based in Shanghai, practices an even more active form of launch-test-improve. It launches new products based on market feedback every month — compared with three to nine months for foreign competitors. Some improvements are relatively minor (such as giving users the ability to turn up the sound volume higher than competing products in noisy urban environments); others are more significant (such as doubling or tripling battery life). In most cases, rapid response to market feedback drives the innovation process. After SIM Technology launched a handset with a large font size and oversized keypad buttons designed for senior citizens, for example, it received requests to add an alarm function in case the user falls or becomes ill and satellite tracking capability so relatives can locate elderly parents when they are away from home.
A number of aspects of the current Chinese market environment encourage companies to embrace rapid iteration cycles in the development of new products. The Chinese market is particularly fluid and fast-moving, with many first-time buyers and open-minded consumers and relatively few regulatory hurdles to clear before new products can be launched. Moreover, most Chinese companies have relatively little brand equity and thus face limited risk if a new product fails.

Combining Vertical Hierarchy With Horizontal Flexibility

The final piece in the accelerated innovation jigsaw puzzle is the way the organization makes decisions and solves problems as they arise. In most of the Chinese companies we studied, project goals, budgets and timelines were set by top management and cascaded down through a strong vertical hierarchy; for many employees, even senior scientists and engineers, the boss’s word was law. To foreign observers, such a structure might appear to be excessively bureaucratic, with all the attendant problems of inflexibility and sloth. But while the vertical hierarchy is often rigid in these organizations, there is also a high degree of horizontal flexibility, allowing for smooth and rapid flows of resources and knowledge between peers in different departments and functions. When an innovation initiative encounters a problem, the project team (often under intense pressure from above) gathers together everyone within the company who can help them in the mode of “huddle and act” until a solution can be found. Huddle-and-act problem solving is heavily based on personal relationships (consistent with the Chinese concept of guanxi) rather than formal processes. This social dimension has the added benefit that once the outline of a solution is agreed upon, the individuals from the departments involved feel a strong duty to implement their part of the answer quickly so as not to let the team down.
When Chinese interviewees were asked to compare the huddle-and-act approach to innovation they practiced within Chinese companies with what they had experienced working in more traditional foreign multinational companies, they pointed out a surprising paradox. Foreign multinationals usually had flatter hierarchies than their Chinese counterparts, but because that meant reaching consensus among a larger group of peers across rigid departmental boundaries, the decision-making process was often slower. Decision making inside multinationals also tended to be more structured, with systematic processes for diagnosis and resolution that often involved writing a report and then circulating it for comment to areas of the business that might be affected. Although this approach might help mitigate risk, it often reduces innovation to a snail’s pace. By contrast, top-down goal setting combined with horizontal flexibility can accelerate the innovation process dramatically by enabling the organization to reconfigure itself continually to serve customer demand, back new initiatives, solve problems as they arise and speed up joint learning.

Implications for Global Competition

Accelerated innovation and many of the processes and techniques it uses are not unique to China. Start-ups around the world and companies in fast-moving environments such as Silicon Valley are speeding up the pace of new product development and relying on beta testing to achieve some of the effects of the launch-test-improve cycles we have discussed. What’s noteworthy about the Chinese economy is its ability to achieve accelerated innovation, with rapid scale-up, low cost and “good enough” quality across a wide range of industries. The results may not lead to fundamental breakthroughs, but that doesn’t mean that the innovations cannot powerfully disrupt incumbents’ profit models. In fact, we believe that the accelerated innovation capabilities being developed by Chinese companies are becoming increasingly critical for global competition in light of changes in the overall business environment.
First, today’s consumers are better informed than ever. As information moves around the world at lightning speed, customers know immediately whether or not your offerings are up to date. Yet recent research shows that breakthrough innovators often have a harder time capturing market share and cumulative profits than “fast followers.”2 For example, some have argued that even Apple has built its success “not as a pioneer, but as a user-centric fast follower.”3 The Chinese approach to accelerated innovation is about bringing affordable new product designs to market in record time. This capability is based on the idea that more and more markets reflect what Yun Jong Yong, former CEO of Samsung Electronics, called the “sashimi theory,” which he described as follows: Fresh raw fish can be sold at a premium in an expensive restaurant; the next day, the fish can be sold for half the price at a second-tier restaurant; on the third day, the fish sells for one-quarter of the original price; and after that it is considered dried fish.4 In practice, companies can earn a premium by staying abreast of competitors’ pace of innovation and by having up-to-date products available in volume at an affordable price — something Chinese accelerated innovation is well placed to deliver.
A second, related point is that many of the approaches to accelerating innovation we have described can also reduce costs. Industrializing the innovation process, for example, requires more people, but because it uses technicians who are less trained than traditional R&D staff (and pays them less, over a shorter development cycle), total outlays for a given project can be reduced. Likewise, companies can rely directly on customer feedback, thus reducing the need for expensive market research and fancy prototypes.
Third, accelerating innovation may be one of the most effective responses to faster and more aggressive imitation by fast-following competitors. Even where patent protection is available, trade secrets and associated know-how are notoriously difficult to protect when employees change jobs. Imitation is a natural result of the free flow of knowledge moving around the world through new technologies, widespread use of outsourcing and offshoring, and new competitors emerging from countries, including China, where intellectual property (IP) protection is relatively weak. These forces place a premium on an organization’s capacity to innovate rapidly and stay one jump ahead.
Some companies have reengineered their established innovation processes to meld the principles of accelerated innovation with their own innovation know-how, often by finding ways to leverage the experience of local employees.
Of course, some industries will be more directly affected by fast innovation than others. The mechanisms Chinese companies are adopting for accelerating innovation are likely to be most effective in products where a “dominant design”5 or industry-accepted architecture has emerged, so that the innovation process can be defined and easily industrialized. Accelerated innovation is also likely to be a potent competitive weapon with products and services such as mobile phones and social media applications, where demand is driven at least in part by changing fashions or lifestyle trends, resulting in short replacement cycles. As techniques for accelerated innovation are further developed and perfected, however, more and more industries that have historically relied on innovation as a key differentiator will have to be mindful of the threat.
IP disputes may also complicate the ability of Chinese companies to leverage the results of accelerated innovation in global markets. So far, there has been relatively little IP litigation by foreign companies arising from accelerated innovation. In fact, claims involving foreigners account for less than 5% of all IP lawsuits in China;6 the vast majority of cases are between Chinese claimants. One important reason is that accelerated innovation may provide an effective way of avoiding conflict over IP because it enables rapid, parallel development of innovative products without infringing on existing IP. Alibaba Group, the Chinese e-commerce giant, offers a good example. It freely acknowledges that it did not think up the original ideas behind its Taobao Marketplace and Alipay products, which offer Chinese customers services similar to eBay and PayPal, respectively. But the company has used accelerated innovation to develop its own proprietary software and associated infrastructure that underpin its services.

Responding to the New China Challenge

We see three ways for global companies, large and small, to respond effectively to the new wave of
accelerated innovation that is gathering pace in China. The first way is for companies that are beyond the start-up phase to reengineer their own innovation processes in accordance with the principles and techniques of accelerated innovation being pioneered in China. The second way is to tap into existing accelerated capabilities in China by tasking local R&D units to focus on time-sensitive projects and by hiring local staff with knowledge of how to speed up certain aspects of the new product development cycle while reducing costs. The third approach is to develop alliances with Chinese players in order to tap into accelerated innovation know-how, especially at the stage of rapid piloting and scale-up of new technologies and ideas. This last approach should be particularly attractive to small- and medium-sized foreign companies that face financial, regulatory and knowledge barriers to commercializing their innovations at scale at home.

Reengineering Established Innovation Processes

Some companies have reengineered their established innovation processes to meld the principles of accelerated innovation with their own innovation know-how, often by finding ways to leverage the experience of local employees. Dominique Neerinck, chief technology officer of Belgium-based Bekaert, a global company that specializes in steel wire transformation and coatings, summed up the strategy this way: “We have had to review the whole R&D process to respond to the Chinese challenge.” Bekaert makes products as diverse as shields for electromagnetic interference, film coatings and champagne cork wire; the first Bekaert business to take off in China was steel cords for strengthening truck and automobile tires. Recognizing the growth potential in China, the company has invested heavily in building R&D capacity there. By reengineering its R&D process to achieve increased speed and productivity, Bekaert’s R&D teams in China have learned how to adapt their processes to use available grades of Chinese steel, how to reduce energy consumption and how to innovate more efficiently. The company has been able to introduce a variety of new products, including construction materials, textiles, environmentally friendly gas burners, window films and saws for solar-cell manufacture. “Our innovation efforts were driven by the local opportunity but have improved [our] global competitiveness,” Neerinck observed.

Focusing R&D Activities on Leveraging Accelerated Innovation Capabilities

Many foreign multinationals have preexisting R&D and innovation activities in China. However, these efforts have been largely focused on adapting existing products to the Chinese market. In general, the multinationals have sensibly focused on “development” (as opposed to research), but they have often used processes replicated from overseas R&D centers rather than applying the lessons of Chinese accelerated innovation. When AstraZeneca established its $100 million R&D facility in Shanghai in 2006, for example, its initial research mandate was “In China, For China.”7 Today, however, that facility operates as a full-fledged discovery center focusing on diseases that are causing widespread and pressing health problems in Asia. By shifting the focus of China R&D activities to projects aimed at getting well-priced products launched and scaled up quickly, companies can open up new opportunities to leverage local capabilities for accelerated innovation. Indeed, the real benefits come from breaking free of orthodox development processes and learning from Chinese R&D approaches to accelerate the complete cycle from discovery to product launch, as opposed to simply focusing on a narrow part of the development cycle. When PepsiCo set up a new beverage and food innovation center in Shanghai in 2012 (its largest to date outside North America), for example, the main objective was to “help PepsiCo speed consumer testing and get products to market faster,”8 rather than save on development costs.

Exploiting the Potential of Alliances With Chinese Partners

The final strategy for tapping into the potential for Chinese accelerated innovation is to form an alliance with a Chinese partner. To be sure, the risks of intellectual property leakage need to be carefully managed, but some companies are finding that such partnerships can be a fruitful way to combine well-developed overseas capabilities for fundamental R&D with Chinese accelerated innovation know-how. In addition to its own R&D initiatives, AstraZeneca, for example, formed an alliance with a Beijing-based company, Pharmaron, in October 2012, in the areas of chemistry, drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics, and efficacy screening. AstraZeneca’s primary goal was to accelerate innovation. As Manos Perros, sponsor of the collaboration for AstraZeneca, put it, “We believe it will help us progress projects through our R&D pipeline more efficiently.” The impact is not expected to be restricted to China but is intended to help “fulfill our commitment to delivering meaningful medicines to patients worldwide.”9
Partnering is also an attractive option for smaller companies looking to scale up new inventions and technologies quickly to the mass market. Chinese partnerships offer not only the prospect of faster commercialization but also access to capabilities for developing complementary processes to manufacture products at large scale — an area where many Chinese companies excel. Green Biologics Ltd., for example, a start-up based in Abington, England, has developed advanced microbial technology for the production of renewable chemicals and biofuels, such as biobutanol, to replace petroleum-based chemicals used in plastics and paint. Founded in 2003, the company struggled to market its technology in Britain. So in 2010, it negotiated partnerships with two Chinese companies to scale up technology that had shown promise on a small scale. Within two years, Green Biologics was able to tap into the volume market in China and open the door to mass-market opportunities in North America and Brazil.

Instead of focusing on technological breakthroughs, Chinese companies are organizing to make R&D and innovation faster and cheaper. They are pioneering new ways of industrializing innovation, pushing the boundaries of simultaneous engineering, leveraging rapid “launch-test-improve” cycles and combining vertical hierarchy with horizontal flexibility to enhance the innovation process. In a world where consumers have almost instant information about whether a product is truly leading-edge, where imitation by fast followers is relentless and where there is growing pressure on innovation projects to deliver more quickly with high cost efficiency, companies everywhere must rethink traditional innovation and new product development processes. The new frontier of global competition will be to combine the strengths of traditional R&D with the new capabilities for accelerated innovation emerging in China. The question for managers isn’t whether one approach to innovation is superior or whether China is failing to innovate. The key point is that Chinese companies are beginning to challenge their global competitors on both speed to market and low costs. To meet this challenge, companies of all sizes will need to understand and leverage the potential of China in new ways.

References (9)
1. J. Ribbens, “Simultaneous Engineering for New Product Development: Manufacturing Applications” (New York: Wiley, 2000).
2. P.N. Golder and G.J. Tellis, “Pioneer Advantage: Marketing Logic or Marketing Legend?,” Journal of Marketing Research 30, no. 2, (May 1993): 158-170; C.C. Markides and P.A. Geroski, “Fast Second: How Smart Companies Bypass Radical Innovation to Enter and Dominate New Markets” (London: John Wiley, 2004); O. Shenkar, “Copycats: How Smart Companies Use Imitation to Gain a Strategic Edge” (Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2010).
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2014年10月15日 星期三

小米的商業模式

Xiaomi, Not Apple, Is Changing the Smartphone Industry

Determining which customer to target first is one of the most critical decisions in the entrepreneurial process.  Customers that are relatively less risky and more predictable can make it easier for new to firms gain a market foothold. One such set of customers is the nascent middle class in emerging economies.
Why? First, as their financial situation improves they are anxious to buy new things. Not quite able to afford the top brands, they’re nevertheless willing to pay a little more for something they perceive might be close. Second, because they can’t yet afford the high-margin top brands, they’re not all that attractive to incumbents worried about generating enough cash to cover their high fixed and variable costs. So they exist in a sweet spot from an entrepreneur’s point of view: rich and numerous enough to fuel a start-up’s growth and also poor enough not to spur incumbents to respond.
Xiaomi, the four-year-old Chinese smartphone manufacturer, has found just such a sweet spot, and as a result is taking the smartphone industry by a storm. Pundits claim that Xiaomi is just a Chinese copycat of Apple, and not without some reason. Some point to Xiaomi’s product introductions, which are eerily just like Apple’s.  Others point out the strong similarities between Xiaomi’s operating system (named MIUI) and Apple’s iOS. What’s more, Xiaomi’s products rank among the best in the industry in terms of performance. All these cues might lead us to believe that it is competing head to head with the leading smartphone manufacturers.
However, looking at the full extent of Xiaomi’s business model reveals just how different – and how disruptive — it is. For starters, unlike Apple, Xiaomi is not targeting premium customers; it’s mostly teens buying those high-quality phones, and hardly at a premium, since Xiaomi’s prices are at least 60% lower. A neat trick. How does Xiaomi pull that off?
To sell high-quality cell phones at so low a price, Xiaomi keeps each model on the market far longer than Apple does. On average, a new version of a phone is launched every 265 days in the industry – down from 345 days in 2009. But Xiaomi doesn’t renew its product for two years. Then, rather than charge high prices to cover the high cost of state-of-the-art components, Xiaomi prices the phone just a little higher than the total cost of all its components. As component costs drop over the two-year period by more than 90%, Xiaomi maintains its original price, and pockets the difference. So essentially its profit formula is the opposite of Apple’s, which collects its highest profits with the introduction of each model and needs to come up with new model after new model to keep those margins up.
When you consider how much easier it might be to profit from plummeting component prices than from continual new feature development (which sooner or later will likely overshoot the needs of most cell phone customers in any event), the disruptive potential of the model becomes clear.
One might worry that other low-end competitors could easily copy this clever model, and to forestall that, Xiaomi has devised a creative way to create some of the mystique Apple is so justly noted for. Essentially it markets its phones to its price-constrained but status-conscious teen base in much the same way that rock band promoters sell concert tickets. Through an online retailer called Flipkart, potential buyers preregister for a short sales window. They’re required to stay online for at least two hours before the sale starts, and then only the first 20,000 lucky buyers get the opportunity to purchase. Human nature being what it is, after this awful experience, buyers end up wanting the phone even more.
Xiaomi is close to meeting its target of selling 60 million phones in 2014 with a business model well suited to expansion into other developing economies. In a classical reaction to disruptive innovation, the largest smartphone manufacturers were at first not motivated to seriously challenge Xiaomi, since they could not be profitable at the price these customers are able to pay. Now that Xiaomi is becoming a significant competitor, the incumbents are still barely reacting, launching simplified versions of their mature flagship products, as Apple did with the iPhone 5c. But these are perceived as outdated, as newer models, like the iPhone 6, are introduced amid great fanfare in wealthier markets, and often end up being discontinued.
So far from being a copycat, Xiaomi presents a knotty disruptive challenge to the largest smartphone manufacturers. As it continues to expand in developing economies by marketing to the emerging middle class, it remains sheltered from the competition by its margins and the way it makes products profitable. Sooner rather than later, as it continues to propagate its new business model, this disruptive competitor is going to change how this industry works.

How Xiaomi Beats Apple at Product Launches


The iPhone 6 is due in September.
The build-up to its launch will almost certainly follow the Steve Jobs M.O. Device specifications will remain a closely guarded secret until the launch date (unless an employee forgets his phone at a bar). There will be long lines at stores. We probably won’t be able to actually get the product for a couple of months after the launch. And, of course, users (we) will have no input into what we actually get; Steve Jobs’ dictum that “people don’t know what they want until you show it to them” is still an act of faith for Apple’s management.
But is this the only way to launch new products? Let’s think for a second about the risks inherent in this approach. Imagine that something goes wrong and a hardware glitch makes it necessary to recall and/or repair all products (remember the iPhone4 Antenna problem)? Or what if a certain feature or the device as a whole is a complete miss with consumers (think Apple Maps)?
All this secrecy comes at a price, both in the supply chain and by creating a difficult workplace. Consider how many people have to keep the secrets: factory workers, supply chain workers, and retail employees. Current employees will work weeks of overtime and self-employed contractors will be hired in the thousands. According to some media outlets, Apple already announced restrictions for employee vacation in Germany, probably because of the launch. This elaborate planning process is complex, expensive, and risky.
But what is the alternative? In “Why The Lean Startup Changes Everything,” Steve Blank argues for “experimentation over elaborate planning, customer feedback over intuition, and iterative design over traditional ‘big design up front’ development”. Blank’s approach is as relevant to new product launches as to new companies: they are also highly uncertain, with many unknown unknowns.
One of Apple’s competitors is already applying just such an approach to new product launches. Founded in 2010, Xiaomi is one of the biggest Chinese smartphone companies. Its revenues last year were already more than $5 billion — not bad for a three-year old.
Unlike Apple, Xiaomi produces its products in small batches, allowing for easy changes based on user feedback. Every Friday there is a major feature update of the operating system and a round of feedback from expert consumers. Because Xiaomi only sells directly to consumers (unlike Apple, which goes through many intermediaries), the company can collect all this feedback and build it into the next generation of devices.
In essence, the phone you buy this week can be different from what you’ll buy next week. As one example of the benefits of this approach, Xiaomi got its operating system translated into 24 languages by users and the company didn’t spend a dime. User feedback led to the creation of a very different and much more flexible device. Xiaomi allows users to swap the battery, replace a memory card, change case backs, and remove the SIM card.
Don’t get us wrong: we are not saying that Xiaomi has a better product than Apple: they are priced differently and they appeal to different segments of the market. We both use iPhones, not Xiaomi products. But many companies that try to take clues from Apple’s playbook on innovation will fail because they don’t have the marketing clout and brand appeal to push products rather than pull ideas. Further, Apple’s model is driven by the creative genius of individuals like Steve Jobs, who are not easy to find. Without these resources, a company might be much better off following the Xiaomi playbook.


Can Chinese Smartphone Darling Xiaomi Compete in Western Markets?

Lei Jun has hired ex-Googler Hugo Barra to head Xiaomi’s international expansion. Barra has his work cut out for him: Chinese companies have had mixed success so far in competing with top Western brands on several fronts at once. For every success (like Huawei or Lenovo), there have been stumbles (like Jianlibao and or Li-Ning).
Why have Chinese companies struggled to build consumer brands overseas? The answer has been in large part a failure to meet consumers’ social and emotional needs.
What Job Are You Doing?
For Barra and Xiaomi the “jobs-to-be-done” theory, in particular, is relevant. Many internationalizing companies fail because they pick the wrong jobs; addressing this can save both Xiaomi and other companies money and strife.
The “jobs-to-be-done” theory articulates the gap between how producers view and market a product and how customers actually use it. Every time a customer buys a product, they are trying to do a job that brings some value to them – and not necessarily what the product says on the label. In the words of Harvard Business School marketing professor Theodore Levitt, “People don’t want to buy a quarter-inch drill. They want a quarter-inch hole!
The jobs that customers want to do have functional, social and emotional dimensions. For example, in buying a can of Coke (as opposed to another drink), I might be addressing 3 jobs:
  • Functional: “Enjoying an affordable drink, or quenching thirst”
  • Social: “Signaling social status or social inclusion”
  • Emotional: “Exercising an emotional connection with the Coke brand”
The relative split of the functional, social, and emotional dimensions helps explain how a challenger should best attack the incumbent. For example, consumer brands tend to have more of a social/emotional component to their jobs-to-be-done, while B2B products are heavier on functional needs. This means that consumer brand challengers must pay more attention to the social and emotional needs of their customers (often through heavy marketing expenses), while B2B players can afford to compete mostly on their product’s price and efficacy. It is difficult and time-consuming to fulfill the social and emotional jobs, and consumer brand challengers are often tempted to replicate the incumbents’ strategies. But, in Clay Christensen’s disruption language, this approach puts them on a “sustaining” rather than “disruptive” path. And there the incumbents almost always win.
Li-Ning stumbled because it tried to target low-end customers of Nike, and could not fulfill their social/emotional jobs better than Nike without spending more money. According to the company’s vice-president of digital operations, Craig Heisner, the company struggled after it “went right into a fiercely competitive overseas market going directly against the likes of Nike and Adidas”. Similarly Jianlibao, formerly the number one beverage in China, lost out on a frontal battle along the social/emotional dimension overseas before coming back home to compete with Coca-Cola on functionality (price and taste). Unfortunately, with its lower cost structure, Coca-Cola had the patience to see this sustaining challenge through, and ended up crushing the Chinese brand both domestically and overseas.
The better path for Chinese consumer brands seeking expansion to the West is to focus on consumers not yet in the smartphone market. Instead of targeting current customers of the incumbent (who already have sophisticated social/emotional needs associated to the product), they should target non-consumers with a compelling functional offering and help mold their social/emotional associations. For example, when Honda moved into the US motorcycles market, it found little success in targeting existing American motorcyclists — it was only after it moved to non-motorcyclists that it experienced success in creating a new subcategory. B2B businesses can afford to go directly to the low end (Japan’ steel industry and Korea’s semiconductor industry have achieved success via this route) and compete on functionality, but consumer brands should be more careful unless they have the budget for a long fight. Hence the focus on non-consumers.
Xiaomi’s Challenge
The implications for Xiaomi and Hugo Barra are clear. If Xiaomi chooses to prioritize foreign markets with low penetration of iPhones and high-end smartphones (e.g. India, African markets), the dominant entry strategy is to focus on cultivating the vast pool of non-consumers of high-end smartphones. Xiaomi’s resources should thus be directed towards converting feature-phone users to their phones, or educating a new generation of consumers without phones.
If Xiaomi decides to target markets with high penetration of high-end smartphones (e.g. USA, Western Europe), Barra should take a more patient approach. The first step should be to corner the (relatively small) market of non-smartphone users. The step after that involves seeking out non-consumption instances, e.g. selling Xiaomi software to existing Android users, as an add-on. In doing this, Xiaomi can form a “tribe” of loyal supporters with new emotional and social associations who can provide the platform for a push into the lower segment of the high-end smartphone hardware market. Only with this platform should Xiaomi pursue direct competition for low-end customers of Apple and Samsung. The strategy calls for a measured, careful approach – one that first analyzes the jobs that current non-consumers of high-end smartphones are trying to do (e.g. save money, “simplify my life”) and creates a compelling value proposition for them.
With a valuation of $10 billion after 3 years of existence, Xiaomi certainly has caught the eye of many investors. But as Barra settles into his new role, he might find that getting foreigners comfortable with Xiaomi’s name is the least of the company’s internationalization problems.

2014年10月14日 星期二

佔中人士的前世

香港自從建了個中銀大廈後管理日日漸失控。加上港督府改名叫禮賓府,名不正則言不順,以前住在裡面的叫督憲,現在變成賓客驛館,住在裡面怎有權威。而議事及主要官員工作的政府總部又搞個什麼門常開的不倫不類設計,完全缺乏穩重四正,你叫香港怎會安定。

最近的佔中運動大出各方意料之外,到目前尚未看到出路。

凡社會動蕩人心不穩自然有人向傳統迷信找答案。早幾日港台講東講西就有人提出現在參與運動的人是1989年當年枉死的人轉世投胎,所以今世再重走當年未了的路。這樣說亦不無道理。剛好前天與某寧瑪派法王聊天,說起這個問題,法王定一定神就說,非也,八九枉死的是還歷次運動冤殺他人的業。反為這次運動的年輕參與者大部份都是當年文革後期唐山大地震橫死冤魂轉世。